CHANGING DROUGHT PATTERNS IN SIERRA LEONE UNDER A WARMING CLIMATE: A SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC WATER DEFICITS FROM 1981 TO 2025

Abstract

Drought is a significant climate-related hazard in Sierra Leone due to the countrys reliance on seasonal rainfall, rain-fed agriculture, and climate-sensitive water resources. This study examines evidence of meteorological and climatic water deficits during 1981-2025 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), with precipitation data from the Climatic Research Unit ( CRU ) and temperature data from ERA5, complemented by externally produced CORDEX - Africa/ CMIP projections and published assessments. The evidence indicates substantial spatial and temporal variability in drought frequency, duration, severity, and exposure, with northern areas such as Kambia and Port Loko identified in previous studies as comparatively drought-sensitive because of rainfall variability, warming, and dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Importantly, reported quantitative estimates from Amara and Ullah (2023), the Green Climate Fund (2024), Ekolu et al. (2025), Ogunrinde et al. (2026), and other sources are treated explicitly as secondary evidence rather than newly calculated results, and climate projections are interpreted within their original modelling and scenario frameworks.