Africa’s COVID-19 third wave: A coupled behavior-disease system in a mutual feedback loop

Abstract

A year after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic much of the Africa continent started experiencing spikes in the number of COVID-19 cases and related deaths in what was referred to as the third wave of the pandemic. These spikes came right behind the heels of a second wave of the pandemic that barely went unnoticed in Africa. As of July 2021, Morocco, South Africa, Tunisia, Egypt, Nigeria, Libya, Kenya, Algeria, Zambia and Ethiopia accounted for approximately 86% of the reported increase in COVID-19; these countries were aptly described as being at the forefront of the continent’s third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike those countries in Asia and Latin America that experienced what may generally being described as autochthonous COVID-19 third wave, Africa’s third wave COVID-19 cases are widely believed to have been triggered by imported cases. Africa like the rest of the world relaxed its COVID-19 restrictions almost at the same time; hence the continent’s spikes of COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the third wave of the pandemic have raised some questions.