Climate-Smart Agriculture and Carbon Emissions: Panel Data Evidence on Policy Effectiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2024)

Abstract

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for approximately 59 percent of total national greenhouse gas emissions- the highest proportional share globally- and these emissions grew by 35 percent between 2000 and 2021. This study investigates whether climate-smart agriculture policies have resulted in a reduction in per-capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across 15 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2024, with a particular focus on the period following the 2015 Paris Agreement. A balanced panel dataset of 375 country-year observations was constructed from the World Bank Development Indicators, the Food and Agriculture Organization statistical database (FAOSTAT), the International Monetary Fund, and the NASA POWER climate database. Pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects panel models were estimated. The Hausman specification test confirmed the fixed effects estimator as preferred. All models were corrected for confirmed heteroskedasticity and serial autocorrelation using country-clustered robust standard errors. Panel cointegration tests confirmed a long-run equilibrium structure. The primary finding is that agricultural productivity- the climate-smart agriculture proxy- exerts a significant negative effect on per-capita CO2 emissions. The fixed effects elasticity of -2.236 indicates that a 10 percent improvement in agricultural productivity is associated with approximately 22 percent lower per-capita emissions, controlling for temperature, rainfall, and agricultural land expansion, which increases them. A non-linear income-emission relationship was confirmed, consistent with a modified Environmental Kuznets Curve pattern. The climate-smart agriculture CO2correlation strengthened considerably after 2015, suggesting that nationally determined contribution commitments are beginning to generate measurable emission outcomes. Policy simulations indicate that scaling climate-smart agriculture investment to recommended agricultural budget targets could achieve aggregate emission reductions of 12-18 percent by 2030.