Severity score for predicting in-facility Ebola treatment outcome

Abstract

Purpose Sierra Leone recorded the highest incidence rate for the 2013-2016 West African Ebola outbreak. In this investigation, we used the medical records of Ebola patients with different sociodemographic and clinical features to determine the factors that are associated with Ebola treatment outcome during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and constructed a predictive in-facility mortality score. Methods We used the anonymized medical records of 1077 laboratory-confirmed pediatric and adult patients with EVD who received treatment at the 34 Military Hospital and the Police Training School Ebola Treatment Centers in Sierra Leone between the period of June 2014 and April 2015. We later determined the in-facility case fatality rates for Ebola, the odds of dying during Ebola treatment, and later constructed a predictive in-facility mortality score for these patients based on their clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Results We constructed a model that partitioned the study population into three mortality risk groups of equal patient numbers, based on risk scoring: low (score ≤ -5), medium (score -4 to 1), and high-risk group (score ≥ 2). The CFR of patients with EVD belonging to the low- (≤-5), medium (-4 to 1), and high- (≥2) risk groups were 0.56%, 9.75%, and 67.41%, respectively. Conclusions We succeeded in designing an in-facility mortality risk score that reflects EVD clinical severity and can assist in the clinical prioritization of patients with EVD.